• A Look At The Senate Four Weeks Out

Can we hit 10 out of 14?

That is the question that will decide whether or not we will win the Senate. Before I go into detail, it is important to marvel at just how incredible it is that we are even having this conversation. That is a conversation that must be had because, should we fall short of taking the senate (a real possibility), Democrats will claim it showed that GOP momentum was not as strong as advertised.

That dog don't hunt.

January 2009

In 2009, when Barack Obama took power, the Republicans were still retiring and bleeding. The idea that even one Democrat was in danger was not even discussed. In fact, the only argument was how many more Republicans would lose. Let me repeat this. In January of 2009, the only discussion was how much worse things would get for Republicans. Additional Republican losses were assumed, not speculated. There was no question of 'if' only of 'how many'?

How many?

From the Democratic perspective, Arlen Specter's party switch was further proof of a permanent Democratic ascendancy. He provided them with a filibuster-proof 60th vote in the Senate and it was guaranteed they would add 2-5 more seats in 2010.

The minimum was 2 because Kentucky's Jim Bunning was very unpopular as was George Voinovich in Ohio. However, Democrats were more than confident they would pick up New Hampshire, Missouri and North Carolina as well. It must be understood that if the election were held in January 2009, the Dems would probably have picked up all 5 seats.

Then to now

The minimum gains the GOP will make in the Senate is 9 seats. (Scott Brown's January win + 8 more in November). The Maximum is 15 (Brown +14).

That means the REAL GOP gains- the picked up seats plus the ones that came back from the dead- means that the GOP's actual position will have improved by between 14 and 20 seats. This was unthinkable a year ago. Only by an incredible 6 special elections being added, did that change.

The death of Ted Kennedy and Robert Byrd, the corruption of Chris Dodd and Byron Dorgan, the appointments of Hillary Clinton and Ken Salazar, the wholesale collapse of Obama and the Democrats and the rise of the Tea party have all contributed to the change. The change has been amazing. The sheer scope of changing circumstances bringing us to here is just mind-boggling.

So, looking at the 14 additional races we could pick up. We will go least likely to most likely. Remember, we need 10 of these for a takeover.

The "we need a break" group.

Though it is very doubtful that we can win these 4 races, Senate control may very well depend on us picking off 1 of these races. If we take 2 or more, we are virtually assured of control.

14. Delaware.
This race went from a Democratic lock to a Republican lock back to a Democratic lock. It remains to be seen if it can bounce back again. This was Joe Biden's seat for 36 years. Why are the dems attacking Christine O'Donnell so viciously? It is very simple. If the Dems cannot hold this seat, they cannot hope to hold the Senate because-given the size of a wave that indicates- other races will fall too..

13. New York.
If we lose this race, it is the biggest missed opportunity this year. Kirsten Gillibrand has always been vulnerable. Republicans waited far too long to get in this race. It is hard to imagine what they were waiting for. This is the special election to permanently replace Hillary Clinton. Is Joe Dioguardia strong enough to beat her in this environment? Without question. Does he have enough time? We will see. He has already taken 10 points off her lead.

12. California
This race has been back and forth and I keep waiting for Carly Fiorina to take control over Barbara Boxer. She hasn't yet but I still think she will. This race threatens to be the fish that got away.

11. Connecticut.
Linda McMahon is closing fast on Richard Blumenthal She is still down slightly but, unlike the California race, the trend is our friend in the race to replace scumbag Chris Dodd.
Obviously, if we go 0-4 in the previous 4, the remaining races are all must wins. More than likely, we will slip up somewhere. These are the two races most likely to make us need a steal in the 11-14 group.

10. Washington
Unfortunately, Dino Rossi is the most likely slip up. Even when he wins, he loses. In the 2004 Gubernatorial race, Democrats in the State of Washington, and their willing accomplices in the courts, stole the race from Rossi by simply recounting and recounting until they were able to find enough ballots to win. Democrats repeated this feat in the Minnesota senate race. Does anyone doubt that Rossi must beat Patty Murray by at least 2% for his win to count?

9. Nevada.
This was once the surest pickup in America. Now, it is tenuous at best. What Nevada Republicans and Independents were thinking when they nominated Sharron Angle is a mystery to me. Harry Reid has 100% name i.d. and would be down by 20 points if Sue Lowden were the
nominee, we would have no chance of losing. However, without Harry Reid as the target, we would have no chance of winning. Harry Reid has to defend his spot as one of the heads on the three-headed monster. I believe this race will ultimately be decided as a race between Harry Reid and Mitch McConnell for majority leader. I think this race breaks to us at the end and Angle eeks out a small victory.

The We look good group.

8. West Virginia.
This race is billed as Joe Manchin's popularity vs Obama's unpopularity. Manchin is losing the race. What's more? He losing to a guy who only got 36% of the vote in 2006. John Raese might as well not be on the ballot. The RNC is just hammering Manchin as a rubber stamp for Obama's cap and trade plans that would kill West Virginia coal. The ads are working to devastating effect. I think we have this race locked down. It may sound crass but without Robert Byrd croaking (and Kennedy before him), we would not be able to pick up the senate.

7. Illinois.
The numbers Republican Mark Kirk are putting up are not so impressive. However, it is hard to fathom that Alexi Giannoulias is only polling 41% defending Barack Obama's Senate seat. A defacto incumbent polling 41% in a two-way race is TOAST. Consider this. In 2004, Barack Obama won this race by 43 points. Even a 1 point Kirk win would be a 44 point swing in the President's own state. Do I need say more?

6. Colorado.
A true battleground all year but now Ken Buck is up to an 8 point lead over Michael Bennett and pulling away.

5. Wisconsin.
Russ Feingold is getting his clock cleaned by unknown Ron Johnson.

4. Pennsylvania.
Addition by subtraction. Arlen Specter's party jump was such a gift. Now, Conservative Pat Toomey is on his way to Washington.

3. Indiana.
Brad Ellsworth is being destroyed by Dan Coats and this state is coming back to the safe red column.

2. Arkansas.
John Boozeman has a modest 38 point lead over Blanche Lincoln in the land of Clinton.

1. North Dakota.
Byron Dorgan got out of the way of a run away train by retiring. The Republican governor John Hoeven is ahead by 43. I think he is safe.

--SonlitKnight