• Senate Democrats Losing Control

The Possibility of Losing Democrat Senate Control Has Senate Democrats Losing Control

On November 1, 1913, the mighty Black Knights of the United States Army took to the football field.

They were undefeated and looked to stay that way. Of the 4 National powers of that time (Harvard, Yale and Pennsylvania were the others), the mighty Knights had the surest path to an undefeated season and a National Championship.

Only a tiny private Catholic school from Indiana with strange name stood in their way. An unheralded group with a flanker with an even stranger name.

They were sand beneath the mighty Knights feet.

Then, something happened no one had ever seen before.

This scrappy flanker began running down the field in bizarre patterns. Zig zag motions and loops and slanting motions across the field. He must have seemed crazy.

Somehow, however, the Quarterback, Gus Dorais, knew where this player and his fellow players would wind up in these bizarre patterns and threw the ball in their direction 17 times. 17 throws in one game was unheard of. The strange patterns even more so. Yet, Gus managed to get 14 of those throws to his talented group of pass catchers for an unimagined 243 yards. This young upstart group of misfits became Davids that day and slew the might Army Goliaths in what is, to this day, called the greatest upset in the history of College football.

It was unthinkable. It may have been the biggest David and Goliath moment since, well... David and Goliath.

The day the mighty Army Knights, who would win the following year's National title, lost to a rag tag bunch of scrub Catholics from Indiana. The modern passing game had just been invented.

After that day, everyone knew the receiver with the wierd name, from the school with a wierd name. These Irish Catholic kids would fight.

In one year, we have gone from
wondering if there will be as many
as 36 Republican Senators to wondering
if there might be as many as 55.
It is just that crazy.

November 1st, 1913. The biggest upset in College football history. When the legendary Black Knights of Army lost to Knute Rockne, and the Fighting Irish of Notre Dame.

12 Years later, in 1925, Coach Knute Rockne would beat "Pop" Warner's Stanford Cardinal in the Rose Bowl for the first National Championship of College football's most storied program. Rockne, himself would win 5 more National Championships before his tragic death in a plane crash.

Sometimes the team with the unthinkable win over the dynasty, later becomes the dynasty.

From November of 2005 to November of 2008, The Democratic party won 8 Governorships, 53 House seats, The Presidency and 14 Senate seats. When it couldn't get any worse, Arlen Specter switched parties and became the 15th Senate pickup.

House seats are up every two years. You get a crack at Governorships and the Presidency every four. The GOP could get back in the game in those races within 4 years.

But the Senate was another matter.

Because of the six year term of a Senator, only about a third of Senate seats are up every two years.

Of the 15 senate Democratic freshmen, none would face the voters in 2010 and only 6 would face them in 2012. Not until 2014, could Republicans even dream of taking back the Senate.

Sure, Obama and Biden would have to be replaced in the Senate as well as Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. No one even looked up. Why? Barack Obama carried Illinois, Delaware and New York by a combined margin of 3.6 million votes. Bluer than Blue, sadder than sad.

Then the announced retirements started and the Republican picture became even bleaker. While the GOP looked for electoral scraps- states where they could make a plausible stab at pickups- gloom set in further as 4 states began to look like certain additional Republican losses in 2010. Kentucky, Ohio, New Hampshire and Missouri. Add Arizona, where Napolitano looked like she was going to run against Election night loser John McCain.

The pundit class was predicting yet another bad year for Republicans. With more Senate Republicans defending again, in a toxic enviroment, it was hard to imagine a worse scenario for Republicans.

One year ago, the conversation was not about how many Senate seats the GOP would pickup or even if they could pick any up. This must be understood or the magnitude of the times we are in cannot be comprehended.

In February of 2009, the discussion was about how many more seats the Democrats were going to pickup.

Sure, 2012 was a more favorable year for matchups. But with a deficit of 30 seats (65-35) as a very real possibility, the Dems would have such a tight reign on power, would it make sense to hope the GOP could ever regain the majority?

What a difference a year makes.

It is not just Ted Kennedy's death and Scott Brown's stunning victory in Massachusetts.

For starters, the 5 sure losers are are all now safe. The GOP will defend all those seats.

Oh, but there is more. North Dakota- Byron Dorgan's seat is burnt toast. Joe Biden's seat? Gone. Obama's? Goodbye. Speaking of Bye ... how about Bye Bye Bayh...as in Evan Bayh. TOAST. Pennsylvania's Specter ... done. Nevada's Harry Reid ... The Majority leader! Stick a fork in him. Colorado ... it's ours. Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas is over.

In one year, we have gone from wondering if there will be as many as 36 Republican Senators to wondering if there might be as many as 55. It is just that crazy.

Right now, Obama is the least
popular President in American
history for this stage of his presidency
and the GOP is winning Independents
by a margin of 3 to 1.

Now how this ties in with the football analogy.

In that 1913 game between Army and Notre Dame, nobody was talking about how many points Notre Dame would win by. Nobody was talking about if Notre Dame would win.

The only conversation was about how bad Notre Dame was going to get murdered.

All that changed as the game went on and the assumed routers became the routees, as the Irish stunned the Knights 35-13 on their way to rising from obscurity and replacing them as College football royalty.

History may be about to witness a similar work.

If the Republicans can eek out a 51-49 majority this year- something unthinkable a year ago- Democrats could really be in trouble going forward. In 2012, only 10 republicans will be defending Senate seats. Only 2 of the 10 won by less than double digits in their last election. (Bob Corker and Scott Brown).

On the other hand, 23 Democrats must defend in 2012. Further, another 17 in 2014. In 2014, only 12 Republicans defend.

So, in the next 2 cycles Democratic defenses out number Republicans 40- 22. Almost 2 to 1.

It's worse than that.

In races won by less than double digits in the last cycles, Democrat defenses outnumber Republicans 14- 2- that's 7 to 1.

It's worse than that.

Right now, Obama is the least popular President in American history for this stage of his presidency and the GOP is winning Independents by a margin of 3 to 1.

Put it together.

An overwhelming advantage in polling combined with a game being played very much on their side of the field and the combined effects of the next 4 years could be a Senate mauling like you have never seen. Almost overnight, the hunters have become the hunted.

In 2004, the GOP won 55 seats. It is narrowly within the window of possibility we could get back there this year. If so, 2012 and 2014 could mean not just 60 Republicans but, dare we say, 70?...or even more.

Losing the majority this year would mean Dems couldn't even begin to take it back until the next Republican President is running for Reelection....in 2016. Losing the Senate Majority this year will be the equivalent of the great San Fransisco earthquake for Dems. It could signal the beginning of their political end.

Knute Rockne would be proud.

SonlitKnight