• THE TOAST LIST

(Last updated 20 March 2010)

THE SENATE

BURNT:

1) Nevada - 'Dingy' Harry Reid is a goner with only 38% support; will lose by double digits to Sue Lowden.
2) North Dakota - Byron Dorgan's retirement makes this an absolute lock for the GOP.
3) Delaware - Beau Biden would have lost but he could have made it close. Now, Republican Mike Kastle will winthe seat Joe Biden held for 36 years in a rout.
4) Arkansas - Blance Lincoln's numbers are horrid and Obama is about as popular in Arkansas as a genital rash.
5) Indiana - Evan Bayh's Indiana withdrawl rockets that race up from #9 (Medium) to #5 (Burnt). The Republican nominee is certain to win this race now.
6) Pennsylvania - Toomey is pulling away from Specter.
7) Illinois - Kirk the Republican has a solid, if not overwhelming lead. The defacto incumbent Giannoulias is polling 40% in defending Obama's seat according to Rasmussen. He's done.
8) Colorado - Bennet does not appear like he will survive. Colorado's Bennet down by 14.


DARK:

9) New York - A new Rasmussen poll has Kirsten Gillibrand polling below 45% in a hypothetical match against George Pataki.
10) California - Boxer is polling in the 45% range.


MEDIUM:

11) Washington - Patty Murray is down by 2 and polling only 43% in a hypothetical matchup with Dino Rossi
12) Wisconsin - This race moves up if Tommy Thompson decides to take on Feingold.


LIGHTLY TOASTED:

13) Connecticut - If we can tar Blumenthal with Dodd, we can win here.
14) Oregon - Neither is Ron Wyden.
15) New York - Chuck Schumer; a new Marist poll showing Charles Schumer with an approval rating below 50%


BREAD (Safe for now)

16) Maryland - Barbara Mikulski
17) Vermont - Patrick Leahy
18) Hawaii - Dan Inouye


ADDENDUM: In addition, keep an eye on Joe Lieberman. Party switcher? That could mean 9 gained seats for Republicans.

THE HOUSE

BURNT:

1) Tennessee 6 - Open seat
2) Louisiana 3 - Open seat
3) Indiana 8 - Ellsworth
4) Arizona 2 - Open seat
5) New York 29 - Open seat
6) Kansas 3 - Open seat
7) Idaho 1 - Minnick
8) Mississippi 1 - Childers
9) Maryland 1 - Kratovil


DARK:

10) West Virginia 1 - Mollohan
11) Arizona 1 - Open seat
12) Tennessee 8 - Open seat
13) Indiana 9 - Hill
14) New Mexico 2 - Teague
15) Colorado 4 - Markey
16) Virginia 5 - Perrielo
17) Virginia 2 - Nye
18) Florida 8 - Grayson
19) Michigan 6 - Schauer
20) Pennsylvania 12 - Vacant
21) New Hampshire 1 - Shea-Porter


MEDIUM:

22) Washington 3 - Baird
23) Ohio 1 - Driehaus
24) Ohio 15 - Kilroy
25) Nevada 3 - Titus
26) New Hampshire 2 - Open seat
27) Massachusetts 10 - Open seat
28) Hawaii 1 - Open seat


LIGHTLY TOASTED:

27 Democrats

GOVERNORS

BURNT:

1) Kansas - A certain GOP pickup with Sebelius gone.
2) Oklahoma - Another solid Red state comes home.
3) Wyoming - See above.
4) Wisconsin - Wisconsin moves up from #8 to #4 and to "burnt". Likely Dem nominee polling no better than 42% in any matchup. Another GOP pickup.
5) Pennsylvania - Rendell was a disaster.
6) Illinois - Democrat Pat Quinn moves up from #14 to #4. One of the biggest movers this year. The Illinois Governor polling 37% at home!
7) Ohio - John Kasich leads the incumbent Strickland 49-38.

DARK:

8) Michigan - Granholm was a disaster.


MEDIUM:

9) Iowa - A key 2012 battleground state.
10) Tennesee -


LIGHTLY TOASTED:

11) Colorado - Ritter is vulnerable.
12) Massachusetts - Two miracles in one year?
13) New York - Moves up if Guiliani gets in the race


BREAD (Safe for now)

14) Arkansas
15) Maine
16) Maryland
17) New Hampshire
18) New Mexico
19) Oregon


THINKING OUT LOUD: Republicans vulnerable in California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Minnesota, Rhode Island and Vermont, but in a good GOP year, I think we hold at least 4 of the 6.


KEY:
Burnt - It's over. GOP pickup.
Dark - Democrat in serious trouble.
Medium - Democrat in trouble, needs to recover fast.
Lightly Toasted - Democrat in potential trouble.
Bread - Democrat looks safe.

--SonlitKnight