Wednesday, March 17, 2010

• THE TOAST LIST

(Last updated 20 March 2010)

THE SENATE

BURNT:

1) Nevada - 'Dingy' Harry Reid is a goner with only 38% support; will lose by double digits to Sue Lowden.
2) North Dakota - Byron Dorgan's retirement makes this an absolute lock for the GOP.
3) Delaware - Beau Biden would have lost but he could have made it close. Now, Republican Mike Kastle will winthe seat Joe Biden held for 36 years in a rout.
4) Arkansas - Blance Lincoln's numbers are horrid and Obama is about as popular in Arkansas as a genital rash.
5) Indiana - Evan Bayh's Indiana withdrawl rockets that race up from #9 (Medium) to #5 (Burnt). The Republican nominee is certain to win this race now.
6) Pennsylvania - Toomey is pulling away from Specter.
7) Illinois - Kirk the Republican has a solid, if not overwhelming lead. The defacto incumbent Giannoulias is polling 40% in defending Obama's seat according to Rasmussen. He's done.
8) Colorado - Bennet does not appear like he will survive. Colorado's Bennet down by 14.


DARK:

9) New York - A new Rasmussen poll has Kirsten Gillibrand polling below 45% in a hypothetical match against George Pataki.
10) California - Boxer is polling in the 45% range.


MEDIUM:

11) Washington - Patty Murray is down by 2 and polling only 43% in a hypothetical matchup with Dino Rossi
12) Wisconsin - This race moves up if Tommy Thompson decides to take on Feingold.


LIGHTLY TOASTED:

13) Connecticut - If we can tar Blumenthal with Dodd, we can win here.
14) Oregon - Neither is Ron Wyden.
15) New York - Chuck Schumer; a new Marist poll showing Charles Schumer with an approval rating below 50%


BREAD (Safe for now)

16) Maryland - Barbara Mikulski
17) Vermont - Patrick Leahy
18) Hawaii - Dan Inouye


ADDENDUM: In addition, keep an eye on Joe Lieberman. Party switcher? That could mean 9 gained seats for Republicans.


THE HOUSE

BURNT:

1) Tennessee 6 - Open seat
2) Louisiana 3 - Open seat
3) Indiana 8 - Ellsworth
4) Arizona 2 - Open seat
5) New York 29 - Open seat
6) Kansas 3 - Open seat
7) Idaho 1 - Minnick
8) Mississippi 1 - Childers
9) Maryland 1 - Kratovil


DARK:

10) West Virginia 1 - Mollohan
11) Arizona 1 - Open seat
12) Tennessee 8 - Open seat
13) Indiana 9 - Hill
14) New Mexico 2 - Teague
15) Colorado 4 - Markey
16) Virginia 5 - Perrielo
17) Virginia 2 - Nye
18) Florida 8 - Grayson
19) Michigan 6 - Schauer
20) Pennsylvania 12 - Vacant
21) New Hampshire 1 - Shea-Porter


MEDIUM:

22) Washington 3 - Baird
23) Ohio 1 - Driehaus
24) Ohio 15 - Kilroy
25) Nevada 3 - Titus
26) New Hampshire 2 - Open seat
27) Massachusetts 10 - Open seat
28) Hawaii 1 - Open seat


LIGHTLY TOASTED:

27 Democrats


GOVERNORS

BURNT:

1) Kansas - A certain GOP pickup with Sebelius gone.
2) Oklahoma - Another solid Red state comes home.
3) Wyoming - See above.
4) Wisconsin - Wisconsin moves up from #8 to #4 and to "burnt". Likely Dem nominee polling no better than 42% in any matchup. Another GOP pickup.
5) Pennsylvania - Rendell was a disaster.
6) Illinois - Democrat Pat Quinn moves up from #14 to #4. One of the biggest movers this year. The Illinois Governor polling 37% at home!
7) Ohio - John Kasich leads the incumbent Strickland 49-38.

DARK:

8) Michigan - Granholm was a disaster.


MEDIUM:

9) Iowa - A key 2012 battleground state.
10) Tennesee -


LIGHTLY TOASTED:

11) Colorado - Ritter is vulnerable.
12) Massachusetts - Two miracles in one year?
13) New York - Moves up if Guiliani gets in the race


BREAD (Safe for now)

14) Arkansas
15) Maine
16) Maryland
17) New Hampshire
18) New Mexico
19) Oregon


THINKING OUT LOUD: Republicans vulnerable in California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Minnesota, Rhode Island and Vermont, but in a good GOP year, I think we hold at least 4 of the 6.


KEY:
Burnt - It's over. GOP pickup.
Dark - Democrat in serious trouble.
Medium - Democrat in trouble, needs to recover fast.
Lightly Toasted - Democrat in potential trouble.
Bread - Democrat looks safe.
--SonlitKnight

22 comments:

  1. I'd just like to point out that one year ago, no more than 4 Democrat Senate seats would have made even the "lightly toasted" level. Now there are 15 including the swimmer's seat that Scott Brown already took.

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  2. With a new Marist poll showing Charles Schumer with an approval rating below 50%-

    http://realclearpolitics.blogs.time.com/2010/02/02/poll-schumer-approval-drops-below-50/

    - a rating change is in order. Schumer moves up to 15 and into the "lightly toasted" category.

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  3. Another ratings change! A new poll confirms my suspicion that Patty Murray of Washington can be had. In fact, the poll shows her down by 2 and polling only 43% in a hypothetical matchup with Dino Rossi.

    As a result, this race is jumping up to the #10 position, under the heating of Medium.

    Connecticut, on the other hand, drops to #13 and into the "lightly toasted" range.

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  4. Illinois' defacto incumbent Giannoulias is polling 40% in defending Obama's seat according to Rasmussen. He's done.

    The race remains #6 but moves up to ''burnt"

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  5. Blumenthal has a 19 or 20 point lead depending on which GOP candidate he faces in November. However, that is down from respective 23 and 24 point leads in November.

    At that rate of deterioration, Blumenthal's lead will be in single digits by May. That is exactly what I predict will happen.

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  6. Colorado's Bennet down by 14. Moves up to #5 Burnt to a crisp. That makes 7 Burnt Senators. Massachusetts makes 8. Senate control is in our reach.

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  7. Keep an eye out for polling on the Indiana race. Now that Dan Coats has officially stated he is running for his old seat, Evan Bayh may be in serious trouble.

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  8. Evan Bayh's Indiana withdrawl rockets that race up from #9 (Medium) to #5 (Burnt).

    The Republican nominee is certain to win this race now.

    In addition, keep an eye on Joe Lieberman. Party switcher?

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  9. Burnt- It's over. GOP pickup.
    Dark- Dem in serious trouble.
    Medium- Dem in trouble, needs to recover fast.
    Light- Dem in potential trouble.
    Bread- Democrat looks safe.

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  10. Jimmy:
    You're only missing 2 things, first is the nice little logo link to Net Talk World over to the right and the second is FL Gov Charlie Crist who is not only BURNT but has turned into MOLD with his support for Obama's Health Care Bill!
    'The Captain'
    http://thecaptainsamerica.com

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  11. Don't forget that some of these are well buttered.

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  12. A new Rasmussen poll has Kirsten Gillibrand polling below 45% in a hypothetical match against George Pataki. She moves up to #9 (Dark).

    If Pataki announces, she remains #9 but moves to burnt

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  13. In the Ohio governor's race, John Kasich leads the incumbent Strickland 49-38.

    Turn out the lights. The race moves up from #6 to #4 and becomes "Burnt".

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  14. Add a 5th name to the Governor's burnt list. Democrat Pat Quinn moves up from #14 to #4. One of the biggest movers this year. The Illinois Governor polling 37% at home!

    Ohio now #5

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  15. In Governor's races, Wisconsin moves up from #8 to #4 and to "burnt". likely Dem nominee polling no better than 42% in any matchup. Another GOP pickup

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  16. Hawaii's 1st district enters the House list at #28. 26 now under "lightly toasted"

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  17. Pennsylvania is now burnt. Move it up to #5 in the Governor's race list.

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  18. A new MRG poll on the Michigan Governor's race shows No Dem can reach even 30% in polling. Holey moley!

    BURNT BURNT BURNT BURNT BURNT

    Our new #3

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  19. In Governor's races, Iowa moves up from medium to dark...at #9

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  20. Governor's races. Iowa #8 BURNT

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  21. Bad news in the New York Senate race. Pataki refuses to challenge Gillibrand. New polling shows that without Pataki in the race, She is safe. Bread

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  22. in the biggest jump of the year, new mexico jumps from #18 to #8 among governor's races....from bread to burnt

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