• HOW BAD HAS IT GOTTEN FOR OBAMA?

Today's Rasmussen approval index is -17. It has bounced around from -12 to -21 over the last month or so, so that puts it right about in the mean area of where it has been.

Today's number means that the among the two poles of voter passion, those who adore Obama and those who loathe him, the loathes have it by more than 2 touchdowns. Bad news for Obama's party this fall because the passionate voter shows up in an off year election. See Virginia, New Jersey and Massachusetts.

To really understand the breadth and scope of how far Obama has fallen, one needs compare this number, and it's internals, to the stratospheric numbers he boasted upon taking office.

The current number of -17 is not his record low so far, but we can start there anyway. On a Rasmussen poll taken on January 24th, 2009, that number stood at what will remain the high water mark of his presidency: +26.

So, Obama's net Approval index has fallen an astonishing 43 points in barely over 13 months. If he continues at that rate, he will be at -60 by the spring of next year when he could very well be facing a Republican congress.

Looking at the poll internals tells an even more alarming tale.

Among Men, Obama is at -24 compared to a poll of February 19th, 2009 that put him at +4. Among Women, Obama is at -10 now, while that same poll from February of last year put him at +21. You heard right, Obama has dropped faster among women since taking office (down 31 points net) than among men (28).

Among unaffiliated voters, the news is even
more grim. Obama has fallen from +12 when
he was inaugurated to a mind blowing -27.
That is a 39 point plummet.

Among Republicans, Obama started out with a cool -12, that number has now sunk to -68. With that level on Republican enmity now, can Obama even hope to repeat his wins in Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Indiana, Colorado and Nevada? How about New Hampshire, Iowa and New Mexico?

George W Bush won each of those 10 states at least once. He won the first 7 twice. Take the two time Bush states away from him and he loses the election.

But Obama isn't merely going to be giving back Red states, or even just Red and Purple states. Obama is in trouble all over the electoral map and with every constituency.

In the current poll, Obama is +35 among Democrats. That sounds good until you realize that he was +72 on his third day of office. With a 37 swoon among his own party, how can he hope to hold on to states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin where Gore and Kerry won by razor thin margins?

Among Unaffiliated voters, the news is even more grim. Obama has fallen from +12 when he was inaugurated to a mind blowing -27. That is a 39 point plummet.

So, you have volcanic opposition from Republicans, visceral opposition from unaffiliated voters and only tepid support from his own ranks. This has created a perfect electoral storm for 2012.

Not only is Obama finished in Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana, Ohio, New Hampshire, Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico -- the Bush states . . .

Not only is he toast in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota, the near-miss states . . .

That would be bad enough . . .

Obama's party has just suffered two devastating defeats in states unthinkable a year ago: New Jersey and Massachusetts. Meanwhile, high profile Democratic Senators are in deep trouble in other solid blue states such as Delaware, New York and California and even, Obama's own state of Illinois.

With the threat of energized Republicans and Independents showing up in swarms while demoralized Democrats stay home, the number of states where Obama is not at least vulnerable will probably number in the low single digits. Many people are expected a historic bloodbath in this November's elections- and I think they are right.

Yet, if current trends continue, 2012 could be an electoral wipe out of Reagan/Mondale proportions.

-- SonlitKnight